Aurora, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

864
FXUS63 KGID 301753
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Although the majority of the next week won`t feature "high
  impact" weather, we will nonetheless remain in an active
  weather pattern, with the passage of at least FOUR separate
  upper low pressure systems keeping a parade of intermittent
  precip chances going.

- By far the most concerning weather of the week appears focused
  on Tues-Tues night, with strong-southeast winds (gusts at
  least 40-45 MPH) during the day, followed by widespread
  showers/at least scattered thunderstorms evening-overnight,
  at least a few of which will probably be severe.

- The majority of our forecast area (CWA) has been assigned a
  Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms Tues evening-
  night by SPC, with large hail currently looking like the
  overall biggest threat.

- Backing up to the very short term, there is a small chance
  that mainly the far southwestern fringes of our CWA (mainly
  Phillips/Rooks counties) could perhaps catch a dusting of
  slushy snow this morning (assuming light rain manages to change
  over to snow).

- Temperature-wise: overall very typical for late-March/early-
  April through the next week, with highs most days 50s and lows
  most nights 30s (today the overall-chilliest day and Tuesday
  overall- mildest).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

-- PRIMARY 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE TRENDS,
 CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES:

- There was overall very little noteworthy change with this
  latest "forecast package", as we clearly remain in the midst
  of an active weather pattern (as noted above: at least FOUR
  separate low pressure systems currently expected between today
  and Saturday).

- Tuesday concerns: Although still 48+ hours away and subject to
  the usual uncertainties of that time range, Tues-Tues night is
  clearly going to be our MAIN forecast focus these next few
  days. Starting with the daytime hours, south-southeast wind
  speeds were raised a bit (possibly not enough?), but now that
  we`re calling for at least 40-45 MPH gusts we`ve added this
  concern to our latest Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). Of
  course, the MAIN concern is severe storm potential Tues
  evening- overnight, as this now features our first widespread
  Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of 2025 per the initial SPC Day 3
  outlook. At least right now the primary threats appear to be
  large hail and damaging winds (respectively). Although a
  tornado threat is probably non-zero, it currently appears of
  lesser concern primarily due to limited low-level moisture
  (dewpoints currently expected to top out only upper 40s-low
  50s most of our CWA...although mid-50s could make a run toward
  our extreme southeast/Mitchell County area).

- Obviously one positive aspect of the ongoing-upcoming weather
  pattern will be several chances for needed precipitation. That
  being said, cumulative rain totals through Saturday for MOST
  of our CWA currently appear fairly modest, with most places
  expected to pick up somewhere between 0.25-0.75" (of course
  localized higher likely especially in those places that see
  heavier showers/storms Tuesday).


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL BREAKDOWN:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 430 AM:
For those who quickly grew accustomed to temps in the 70s-80s a
few days ago, the post-frontal airmass of the last 24 hours has
surely been quite an adjustment! As was hoped/expected, any
threat for strong/severe storms late Sat afternoon indeed
focused east of our CWA, and several inches of snow focused well
to our northwest mainly over the Sandhills. In between, we were
mainly left with widespread/chilly drizzle mainly Sat daytime-
early evening, and although limited coverage of drizzle
continued later into the evening, the vast majority of our CWA
has had a dry overnight as we currently reside in a brief/small-
scale break between the departed Saturday upper wave, and the
next low-amplitude shortwave trough swinging into the Central
Plains in active west-southwest flow aloft.

As of 430 AM, the only precip of note within our CWA consists of
chilly light rain mainly in our extreme southwest (Rooks County
KS and vicinity), although this precip could easily try changing
over to slushy light snow in the coming hours.

At the surface, a decent pressure gradient continues, keeping
north-northwest winds on the breezy side (mainly sustained 15-20
MPH/gusting 20-25+ MPH. Thanks to these steady winds and wall-
to-wall (mainly low) cloud cover, temperatures have budged very
little overnight, with lows on track to bottom out 30-34 most
areas.


- TODAY:
Aloft, the main feature will be the continued passage of a broad
shortwave trough, with the majority of associated lift focused
this morning before diminishing this afternoon. Although we have
at least broad/at least slight chance precip chances (PoPs)
focused across much of primarily the southwest 1/2 of our CWA
this morning, high-res models such as HRRR (along with radar
trends) clearly show that the MAIN chance for light measurable
precip this morning will focus over our far south-southwest
zones (mainly within our KS zones up toward Furnas County),
where the primary, generally west-east oriented swath of mid-
level saturation/weak frontogenetic forcing resides. As a
result, actually have "likely"/60+ % PoPs assigned to primarily
Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell counties in our far south through this
morning. The primary question mark is whether this light precip
stays a cold rain or at least mixes with or perhaps changes over
to outright-snow for a time (the thermal profile supports all
potential scenarios). Leaning heavily on the latest HRRR, the
majority of light snow accumulation this morning should focus
JUST west of our southern CWA within northwest KS, but that
being said would not be surprised to see especially parts of
Rooks/Phillips counties catch a dusting of slushy snow this
morning before it warms up enough to change any precip back over
to rain. Because any potential snow accumulation is: 1)
uncertain...2) expected to be only a few tenths of an inch at
most...have opted against formal inclusion in our Hazardous
Weather Outlook, but this obviously bears watching. On one last
morning-related note, based on some recent obs within/near our
far northern CWA, may have to add some "patchy drizzle" back
into the morning forecast for much of mainly our Nebraska CWA,
but not currently expecting any travel issues given that temps
are barely at the freezing mark at worst (and appreciable
freezing on road surfaces seems fairly unlikely).

Turning to this afternoon, although certainly cannot rule out
some additional spotty light precip especially in our far
northeast (Polk County area) where the HRRR hints at some light
"wrap around" rain or rain/snow mix, have opted to follow the
lead of most model solutions and have gone with a dry forecast
CWA-wide beyond 1 PM as forcing/lift diminishes behind the
departing wave.

In other departments today, the main story in MOST places will
be another seasonably-chilly and breezy day. Although especially
some of our far south-southwest counties could see some partial
clearing/partly cloudy skies this afternoon, the majority of our
area will remain socked under widespread low clouds (mostly
cloudy to cloudy). High temps were changed very little with most
of our CWA aimed low-mid 40s, but ranging from near-40 far
north, to upper 40s to right around 50 in our KS zones. North-
northwest winds today will continue breezy, mainly sustained
15-20 MPH/gusts 20-30 MPH.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Although some models suggest that another round of
flurries/light snow could flirt with the far west-southwest
edges of our CWA mainly very late tonight, have maintained a dry
forecast CWA-wide for now as we reside within a brief break in
between systems. One of the main differences for tonight (versus
the ongoing night/morning) is that winds will be lighter, with
especially post-midnight northerly speeds only averaging 5-10
MPH. Cloud cover is a little uncertain, but expect it to remain
no better than partly to mostly cloudy. Low temps are aimed a
few degrees colder than this morning, with most of the CWA
expected to bottom out 27-31...easily the coldest night of the
last several and next several nights.


- MONDAY DAYTIME:
Much like today, the vast majority of our CWA should remain
precip-free, but with perhaps a bit more sun (skies at least
partly cloudy at at times but still periods of mostly cloudy
too). That being said, did add a lower-confidence "slight chance
of flurries and/or sprinkles) to some of our far western
counties during the morning, as a few models (including
NAM/HRRR) suggest that a touch of light precip could brush into
our west before dissipating. As a surface ridge axis passes
through, much of the day will feature light winds (no more than
5-10 MPH) as direction gradually swings around from northerly to
easterly to south-southeasterly. However, by mid-late afternoon
some gusts of 15-20 MPH will already get going over our western
counties as the south-southeasterly breezes pick up. Temp-wise,
with a slightly warmer low-level airmass and probably at least
some sunshine in play, expect most areas to top out a good 5-10
degrees warmer than today, with highs most areas into the low-
mid 50s.


- MONDAY NIGHT:
Although amounts look fairly light (most areas only 0.05-0.10"),
a batch of light rain showers will likely track across primarily
the northern half of our CWA as lift increases out ahead of the
next incoming/large scale low pressure system. With
southeasterly breezes increasing, low temps should hold up a
solid 10 degrees warmer than tonight (and solidly above
freezing), with most areas bottoming out 36-41.


- TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
Don`t have time to dive into great detail this morning, but
building upon what was already discussed above, these 24 hours
are clearly the most concerning of the week. Despite low PoPs in
place for much of the CWA, in all reality MOST places should get
through at least 5 PM dry, with the main concern being
moderately-strong south-southeast winds sustained around 30
MPH/gusts at least 40-45 MPH, out ahead of a strong surface low
pressure center developing into northwest KS. These strong winds
will usher in our warmest airmass of the week, and have high
temps into the 60s in most of our Nebraska counties, and low-mid
70s in KS and Furnas County area. By late afternoon, but
especially early-evening and beyond, all attention will turn to
to severe thunderstorm potential, as a deep upper low tracks
overhead, and a strong surface low (on the order of 985-990
millibars), tracks eastward through our area. There is still
some uncertainty regarding whether the main surface low tracks
across our southern CWA or perhaps lifts well up into Nebraska
(GFS most aggressive with this), but either way thunderstorms
will be likely most areas. As earlier mentioned, somewhat modest
dewpoints mainly no better than upper 40s-low 50s should mute
much of a tornado threat (although far southeast zones bear
watching in case at least mid-50s dews make it there). However,
a glance at the latest NAM suggests widespread, mainly slightly-
elevated instability (CAPE) on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg,
which in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear at least
50-70KT...should be plenty sufficient for at least a few severe
storms with large hail/damaging wind potential. Based on current
timing, the MAIN time frame of concern looks to be 7PM-3AM,
before the cold front clears our eastern CWA and sweeps the
instability out with it. Plenty more details to come over the
next few days as things come into better focus.


- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
Wednesday looks breezy-to-windy out of the west-northwest, with
perhaps some spotty showers on the backside of the departing
system. High temps mainly mid 50s-low 60s. Most of Wed night-
Thurs AM currently appears dry, but already by Thurs afternoon-
evening yet another upper wave rides up from the southwest,
bringing additional rain shower chances.


- FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
ALthough there is plenty of model disparity by this time
regarding rain chances (the GFS is notably drier and keeps most
rain to our south while the ECMWF brings decent rain chances
into at least our southern half), the bottom line is that our
forecast continues to carry widespread/modest rain chances as
yet another upper low approaches from the southwest. High temps
are currently aimed very similar both days...mainly mid-upper
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR conditions persist through the forecast period at both
terminals. An upper trough lifts into the region Sunday morning.
Northerly winds will become light and variable Sunday morning.
The forecast is dry for now; however, beyond the TAF period,
rain chances return to the forecast.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Wekesser