Aurora, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

167
FXUS63 KGID 021748
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1148 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for some patchy fog will continue early this morning
  across the area. While most places won`t see notable
  visibility impacts, a few spots of visibility near 1/4-1/2
  mile will be possible. Otherwise an overall quiet, dry day is
  expected today.

- Only precipitation chances in this 7-day forecast period
  remains during the Tuesday evening-Wednesday morning time
  frame. Still some details to iron out, but there will be the
  potential for rain, snow or a wintry mix. At this point, any
  precipitation is expected to be light.

- Highs mainly in the 40s continues for the early part of the
  new work week, with highs climbing more into the 50s (maybe
  60s?) for the latter half of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Current conditions on through tonight...

Upper air and satellite data showing continued northwesterly
flow in place across the region early this morning...set up
between deep troughing over along the East Coast and broad,
weaker ridging extending northward through the High Plains. It`s
been another quiet night...with satellite imagery showing a bit
of upper cirrus around, but most locations currently sit under
clear skies. At the surface, a weak pattern is keeping winds
light/variable. Though recent runs have backed off on the
overall coverage, some models continue to show the potential for
some patchy fog through the early morning hours, so will keep
that mention going with the continued light winds and cooling
temps...which are sitting in the low-mid 20s in most spots.

Looking at the rest of today into tonight, the forecast remains
a dry one. Satellite imagery currently showing an upper level
shortwave disturbance working its way through the Nrn Rockies in
MT...with models showing this wave making its way SE today and
tonight. During the daytime hours today, the main impact from
this approaching wave will be the arrival of a sfc frontal
boundary, which will be working its way in during the afternoon.
Southerly winds this morning will switch to the NNW behind this
front, and western portions of the forecast area could see
gusts around 20 MPH. Across central-eastern areas, speed will be
around 10-15 MPH. Forecast highs today are lower than
Sunday...expecting cloud cover to be on the increase through the
day, and models show some slightly cooler air with this frontal
boundary. Still above normal temps, expected to reach near 40
in the east to low 50s in the west. Tonight...models are in good
agreement keeping precipitation chances focused to the NE of
the forecast area, though not by much.

Tuesday on through next weekend...

Overall, no significant changes were made to the forecast for
the rest of the week into the upcoming weekend. The only
precipitation chances of the period remain in the Tuesday night-
Wednesday morning period, and confidence remains on the lower
side due to lingering model differences. Models showing another
upper level shortwave disturbance sliding SE out of the Nrn
Rockies, but are fairly broad/overall weak in nature with its
strength. There is also some uncertainty with the precip type
due to questions with the thermal profile and
saturation...rain/snow are possible, as is some freezing
drizzle. Some models show little/no QPF across the area, others
show some light accumulations wouldn`t be out of the
question...overall it`s not looking to be a notable event at
this point.

For the rest of the week, upper level ridging shifting further
east looks to keep the forecast dry...with models showing the
potential for more zonal flow for the weekend, but still no
notable systems on the horizon of this forecast period.

No notable changes with forecast temperatures...with mainly 40s
expected for Tue-Wed. With that upper ridging pushing east,
warmer temps remain in the forecast for Thu-Sun, with more
widespread 50s currently forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Despite yesterday`s snowfall, temperatures have overachieved
today, with nearly the entire area reaching the 50s. Low level
moisture from the snowmelt today, combined with light winds will
potentially allow for fog late tonight into Monday morning. 12Z
CAMs were quite aggressive with the fog potential, although
more recent HRRR runs have backed of on the coverage...partially
due to increasing high clouds.

The increased cloudcover on Monday will keep temperatures
around 10 degrees cooler than today...but still slightly above
normal for early February.

The best chance for precipitation over the next week arrives
with a shortwave on Tuesday. Precipitation type will be mixed.
Primary types will be rain and snow, possibly mixed with
freezing drizzle in localized areas with subfreezing
temperatures. Localized travel impacts cannot be ruled out, but
the overall threat remains low. A very light wintry mix is
possible Tuesday morning, but the primary timeframe will be
Tuesday evening through Tuesday night.

Seasonal temperatures continue on Wednesday behind this system,
but another significant warmup is still on-track for the end of
the week and into the weekend. Although we will likely come up
short of record highs, widespread temperatures in the 50s are
expected each day Thursday through next Sunday. There is also
pretty high confidence in dry conditions through this period as
well.

Medium range ensemble are hinting at a more active period for
the following week (February 10-14), as we move to more zonal or
southwesterly flow aloft. That said, details remain very
uncertain and temperatures are favored to remain fairly mild.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: MVFR CIGs possible after midnight,
especially for GRI.

Expect a steady stream of high clouds to persist through the
evening hours with winds shifting from southerly to
northwesterly. Speeds should remain around 10kt, or less.

High clouds will clear out for a time overnight, but low clouds
may back in from the N/NE late, particularly after 06Z and for
GRI. Models are more uncertain on the extent as it pertains to
EAR. CIGs should be primarily MVFR, though latest NBM has about
a 30-35 percent chance for a few hours of IFR CIGs (at GRI)
between 13-17Z. Light and somewhat variable winds overnight,
will bec steady northwesterly 7-10kt for Tuesday morning.
Confidence: Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Thies