Aurora, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

539
FXUS63 KGID 220544
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1144 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures expected across the area for Sunday, with
  50s for most, and low 60s for western areas. During the
  afternoon, not out of the question some near-critical fire
  weather conditions could develop, mainly for far western
  counties.

- For Christmas Eve through the daytime hours on Christmas Day,
  the forecast remains dry. Not expecting notable winds, and
  highs for most reach at least the mid 40s.

- During the evening/overnight hours on Christmas Day,
  precipitation chances return to the forecast...but some
  uncertainties remain, mainly with the track of the system.
  Forecast chances remain low in the 20-30 percent range, and
  are mainly focused across the southern half of the area. At
  this point, models continue to favor this being a rain event.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Currently...

As expected, been a quiet start to the weekend...with satellite
showing overall little in the way of cloud cover, just a few
occasional batches of upper level cirrus passing through.
Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data showing continued
northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains...sitting
between broad troughing over the East Coast and ridging
extending through the Desert SW and Rockies, while another
disturbance makes its way into the Pac NW. At the surface, the
forecast area is set up between high pressure centered over the
Great Lakes/Ontario, spread south through the Midwest, and a
trough of low pressure draped through the High Plains. Winds
today have been south-southwesterly, and while most speeds have
been around 10-15 MPH, there had been an occasional gust near 20
MPH in eastern areas. As far as temperatures go, a few spots
may end up a couple degrees short, but overall temps will end up
good...current readings are in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Tonight through Monday...

Overall, not a lot of change in the forecast in the short term
period, which remains a dry one. In the upper levels, models
continue to be in good agreement showing continuing
tonight...then turning more zonal Sunday on through Monday. The
upper level disturbance currently moving into the Pac NW is
expected to slide around the edge of the ridge axis with time,
also helping to break down its amplitude. This disturbance looks
to slide ESE through the Dakotas...and models have remained
pretty consistent keeping its track (and precipitation chances)
NNE of the forecast area.

Expect some more clouds to pass through, but otherwise the
passage of a surface cold front looks to be the main impact
from this disturbance. During the day on Sunday, surface low
pressure deepens over the Nrn High Plains...and it along with
the accompanying frontal boundary slide east into the forecast
area. Models showing around midday that winds across most of the
central/eastern portions are still southwesterly, with the
boundary moving into far western areas. This certainly isn`t a
strong frontal push...but winds turn west then northwesterly
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Speeds look to
top out around 15 MPH on either side of the front...some gusts
closer to 20 MPH are not out of the question. The more westerly
component to the winds (esp across the west) helps to mix into
warmer air aloft...and highs climbing into the lower 60s remains
in the forecast for areas west of HWY 183. East of there...low-
mid 50s are forecast...but will be dependent on how well things
can mix, not out of the question current forecast is a touch
low. During the afternoon hours on Sunday, across far western
counties, not out of the question that some near-critical fire
weather conditions could develop. RH values are solidly in the
low- mid 20s...but winds are a bit iffy...so kept mention out of
the HWO for now.

For Monday...a weak surface pattern sets up thanks to high
pressure passing through, keeping winds light as they
transition from the NW to start the day to eventually out of the
SSE. While cooler than Sunday, it`s not `cold` behind this
front...highs on Monday are still in the low 50s for most of the
forecast area.

Christmas Eve/Day through the end of the week...

Still looking at a more progressive upper level pattern across
the CONUS for the Christmas holiday on through the end of the
week. After the upper level shortwave disturbance passes to our
NNE Sun PM- Mon...models showing another broader trough pushing
east through the Plains Mon night on through Christmas Eve day.
Models have been consistent the past few days, and continue to
be, showing the main lift/precipitation from this disturbance
being focused SE of the forecast area, closer to the Srn
Plains/Gulf Coast area. The forecast remains dry through the
daytime hours on Christmas Day, with models showing upper level
shortwave ridging sliding east across the region, ahead of
another system making its way through the Four Corners region.
Both Christmas Eve/Day are overall pleasant...not looking at
notable winds either day...and both are forecast to reach at
least into the mid-40s (Tues may have more low 50s around
western areas). Normal highs this time of year are in the mid
30s to around 40.

First mention of any precipitation in this 7-day forecast period
finally arrives during the evening/overnight hours on Christmas
Day, lingering into Thursday. Will state that overall confidence
in the finer details remains on the low-medium side, driven by
model differences. We`ll see if this trend holds or not, but
differences in today`s 12Z deterministic/ensemble runs of the
GFS/ECMWF actually were a little worse...driven more by the GFS.
It`s track of the mid-upper level low is on the northern side
of guidance and showed quite a bit more QPF...showing it
potentially crossing southern portions of our forecast area on
Thursday...vs the ECMWF which is more across OK. Because of the
lingering uncertainties, precipitation chances remain low in the
20-30 percent range, but are still mainly focused across the
southern half of the area. One thing that does remain in pretty
good agreement is the general lack of cold air for this system
to work with...still keeping the preciptiation type as rain.
We`ll see how it trends the next few days.

For Friday and Saturday, expecting things to dry out at some
point Thursday-Thursday night, but models showing the
potential for another system to slide through the region already
late Friday-Friday night. With it being out in days 6-7,
confidence at this point in any details is pretty low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Through 12Z Sun: Low level wind shear remains a possibility in
the 07-10Z time frame, though it appears awfully marginal, esp.
at EAR where sfc winds remain elevated at 11-14kt and peak low
level jet speeds are forecast to remain around 40kt, or less.
Some high clouds will stream in from the NW but flt cat will
remain VFR. Confidence: High

Rest of the period: Additional high clouds will stream over the
terminals off and on, but flt cat will remain VFR. Main aviation
impact, albeit modest, will be gradually veering wind direction
from SSW around dawn to W this eve, then NW late eve and
overnight. Could see some gusts up to around 17-19kt late AM
through early aftn, but most sustained speeds should remain
between 7-11kt. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Thies